Feb. 2 marks an annual tradition where we put our faith in a certain fuzzy friend to predict the weather. It’s known as Groundhog Day, but is there really a science behind it? Or is it just a fun tradition?
“There is a lot of history that goes into Groundhog Day, and I think that makes it really kind of interesting,” said Zach Webster, the morning meteorologist at WTVY in Dothan.
Groundhog Day was first recognized in 1886 in Punxsutawney, Philadelphia, and originates from German roots and customs. According to German beliefs, if the hedgehog saw its shadow on the Christian holiday known as Candlemas Day (Feb. 2), there would be six more weeks of winter. German settlers brought this tradition to the United States, and the legend evolved with a new hibernating animal: the groundhog.
Today, the tradition continues to be celebrated in Punxsutawney. Every year, fans travel to witness if the groundhog sees his shadow. There have been several “weather-predicting” groundhogs over the years, the most popular being Punxsutawney Phil.
“I think people are the most interested in it because of the practicality of it,” Webster said. “It's just a simple, kind of amusing thing of, you know, ‘here's a groundhog predicting the weather.’”
Now for the million-dollar question: is there a science to Groundhog Day? According to meteorologists, the tradition is rooted more in superstition than fact.
“The disappointing thing in all this is that there's not really a lot of science behind it,” Webster said. “There is a lot of history that can make it kind of science-like but, at the end of the day, it just comes down to whether or not it’s sunny or cloudy on that day.”
To understand the “science” behind the tradition, it’s important to first understand the significance behind the day it is held.
“Feb. 2 is one of four cross-quarter days,” Webster said. “These are the mid-points in between an equinox and a solstice.
“In this case, it would be the midpoint between the winter solstice and the vernal equinox, or the start of winter and the start of spring.
This is why Groundhog Day turns into a prediction of whether we get a longer winter or a longer spring.”
Webster explains a lot of the superstition derives from a sort of weather-based logic.
Shadows are dependent on the sun, hence the weather on Groundhog Day plays a pivotal factor on if the groundhog sees his shadow.
“Basically, if the weather was sunny on Feb. 2, it could mean that the second half of winter would be cold and potentially stormy, so we would see six more weeks of winter. If the opposite was true and it was cloudy, we would see a sunnier and warmer rest of winter.”
Another science-based factor that influences the outcome is pressure.
“If it was cold and it was sunny, that’s usually caused by areas of high pressure,” Webster said. “If the groundhog comes out of his burrow and sees its shadow, that means it's sunny.
He would then go back into his burrow because, usually, that means there's going to be more areas of high pressure coming, which means the air is going to be colder and we'll see more weeks of winter.”
“On the opposite side of that, if it’s cloudy or rainy, and he doesn't see a shadow, that could be an indication that there could be more of that on the way, which leads to an early spring instead of late winter.”
Even though it isn’t necessarily true that a groundhog can predict the weather, they have been somewhat accurate over the years. Webster has given Punxsutawney Phil, for example, a score of four “A+” over the span of the last 10 years, making his predictions 40%accurate.
“Even though it’s really just superstition, you can dive into the history of where the superstition came from and build onto that,” Webster said. “I think it's all really interesting to see how that forecast winds up playing out.”
This year, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow at 7:25 a.m., predicting six more weeks of winter. Time will tell if that prediction comes true.
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